Thursday, August 2, 2012

A Theory of Union-Employer Dynamics

A few weeks ago, an Ontario PC’s White Paper publication titled “Paths to Prosperity: Flexible
Labour Markets
” made national headlines for proposing what some analysts called “bold” labour reforms. As usual, whenever anybody shines a negative light on unions in this country, the public reaction is rarely friendly. But whether you side with the Progressive Conservatives or unions, the issue at stake has little to do with economics, prosperity, or economic prosperity. What we are hearing are the drums of an emerging political war.

Listening to politicians talk about “the economy” is like hearing Bieber music, I struggle to find deep meanings behind these strings of words put together to please certain ears. The unions aren’t any better. Their responses have been poor. My favourite criticism comes from PSAC - Public Service Alliance of Canada; Canada’s largest public service union is calling Ontario PC’s Flexible Market a “scam”. These types of rhetoric effectively lower the credibility of both sides for a well-intentioned public discourse.

In Mr. Hudak’s introduction, he cites that Ontario lost over 300,000 manufacturing jobs since 2008. Though not stated explicitly, the underlying tone in the Ontario PC’s “Flexible Market” is to blame unions for the decline of Ontario economy, which saw a growth of just 0.3% in employment over the past year (Statistic Canada). Essentially, the Ontario PCs’ reforms attempt to reduce the power of unions as means to “open” the market and to enhance labour and capital allocation. Weaker unions imply lower wage, less workplace regulation, thus a more “flexible market” that attracts businesses and investments. Will this approach eventually lead to job creation and prosperity? I’m not the only one skeptical of this game plan. As Harvard
Professor Michael Porter points out, lower wage is not a source of long-term competitive advantage.


Even if the PCs have the right idea to improve union functions, they are selling it the wrong way to the public. Because of the general lack of substance and excessive “hand-waving” in the report, it’s not a surprise that many critics find the Ontario PC’s “paths” as a distasteful attempt to undermine union powers behind a promise of “economic prosperity”. The PCs’ mistake is fatal; as policy-makers, they are failing to understand the real problems. The critical component they missed is the dynamics between unions and employers. After all, unions cannot exist without employers. We need to balance both sides of the equation to establish an equilibrium.

At the core of the union-employer is an eternal conflict surrounding the wage. Employers want to pay less, workers want to earn more, from which forming an innate conflict. While both sides gave valid theories to support their respective stance, history provides a greater understanding on whether high wage is sustainable, and if so, under what conditions.

When Henry Ford introduced assembly lines to Ford Motors in 1913, factory workers from every corner of America converged to Detroit to work for him. Even this day, Ford Motors is proud of this segment of history. Not only did the method of assembly line production revolutionized the manufacturing industry, Ford also paid workers $5 a day while the national average was $750 a year (or less than $3 per day). $5 a day was the “American Dream”, and Ford made it possible.

How is it that an automotive company had altered the fate of Americans in such a short period of time? Answer: management. Ford Motors was able to provide such high wage and low price for its cars because its managers found a more efficient  way to build cars through assembly lines; they turned production into algorithms that produced consistent results (for more on algorithm, see Roger Martin’s book “The Design of Business”). The workers are, of course, justified with such high wage because of their overall productivity. Within a decade, they turned Ford into the largest automobile manufacturer in the world.

Our “$5-a-day-at-Ford” story tells us it isn’t out-of-this-world to pay workers above-average salaries as long as the firm has the comparative advantage in the industry to back it up. Firms can become more competitive through product and process innovation, as well as sound management. Paying higher salaries could be beneficial to companies as it allows them to attract the best workers to produce products of the finest quality. There could be a “win-win” outcome for both the employer and employees. The responsibility is upon the managers to optimize their use of human resource and establish a new equilibrium at a higher wage level.

Fast forward 100 years (99 years to be exact), that  “American Dream” is still alive; unions such as CAW (Canadian Auto Workers) made sure of it. According to CAW, general production workers, similar to the average workers in the 1910’s, start at about $24/hour and earn up to $34/hour excluding overtime and benefits. Skilled-trade workers can earn up to $40/hour. This translates to a starting base-salary of around $50,000 to over $80,000 per year - not bad for a high school or tech-college graduate, considering the median Canadian family/household income is only $65,000. The “American Dream” is very much alive and can still be dreamed by just about anybody willing to roll up his or her sleeve, and carry a union card.

So aren’t unions doing everyone a favour then? Not quite; not every firm is revolutionizing the industry the way Ford Motors did in 1913. And those companies who are? They pay employees well enough that they dedicate their energy to work than starting an union. Just look at Apple and Google.

While not every company needs to be “revolutionary” in order to provide a high wage, they need to be at least efficiently managed and somewhat innovative in order to be competitive in today’s economy; this is where unions enter the game. First, unions prevent optimal allocation of human resource. Second, they create a less competitive corporate culture. Third, unions put up barriers during company restructure and expansion. These setbacks ultimately robs firms’ ability to provide higher wages to employees.

Without unions, firms can freely compete for the best workers in the labour market by offering competitive salary and compensations. However, unions are changing the rules of the game. In most unionized shops, seniority matters when it comes to positional promotions. When positions open, employers are required to consider internal candidates first, with seniority acting as the deciding-factor when candidates have equal skills and qualifications. Though it sounds “innocent”, this is more significant than it appears in manufacturing, because general factory labours tend to have similar skill-set and qualification. Therefore, the only thing that sets candidates apart is seniority. The problem with “seniority” is that it favours not necessarily the most experienced workers but those who have been with the union the longest. This is problematic; as firms cannot optimize their labour allocation; well-qualified workers might just have to “wait their turn” before assuming a more advanced position. But who said life is fair? Even the Gods play favourites.

On top of promotions, seniority also provides job protection. While a union’s protectionist measures benefit many families, on the downside they create moral hazard problems for both the employees and the employer. In unionized shops, the union is responsible for workers’ salary increase, job security, compensations, and complaints. This implies that the workers will always side with the union rather than with their employer in the event of a dispute. Rather than having managers engage with their employees directly, union representation takes away the opportunity for direct communication that indeed benefits both sides. The presence of union quietly creates a fissure between the workers and the managers. As in any collective endeavour, disunity hinders overall performance.

Moreover, since both salary and security are linked to one’s seniority level, seniority, not skills, is the most sought-after quality for union members. Ironically, seniority is attained naturally and effortlessly over-time. Even if one put in the time to acquire new skills, there is no guarantee he or she will get a promotion. Job security, therefore, robs a worker’s incentive to improve and acquire new skills. This discourages the younger union members from advancing in the company through acquiring new knowledge. As most intellects would agree, a young and competitive workforce is a key ingredient of a competitive company.

The problems surrounding unions is also profound on the macro level. Unions are creating what I call a “wage bubble”, and its effects are devastating to the economy.

An economic bubble is described as “a trade in products or assets with inflated values”. Assume a worker’s work has some value, when his or her service is over-valued compared to the wage he or she receives, what we have is a wage bubble. This happens when a union limits an employer’s ability to hire the best workers at a given wage in order to protect union members, as well as when wages increase much faster than productivity.

The CAW has had significant effect on creating a wage bubble. When workers at Magna International joined CAW in 2007, their wages increased by $3/hour across the board. The union’s success in negotiating higher wages puts pressure on other firms to follow or risk losing human capital. As such, unions are affecting more than just the workers they represent. While we discussed earlier that higher wages could benefit both workers and the firm, this is no longer the case because firms are not paying the highest wages to the most deserving workers thanks to seniority clauses.

Like all bubbles, a wage bubble could build up and eventually burst to restore equilibrium. And even if does not burst, it gives manufacturers a smaller buffer to accommodate external shocks. Because of the interrelatedness of the manufacturing sector and the integration of our economy, when one firm goes down, many others are affected. Thus, a wage bubble increases the risk across the whole industry. Since about 3 out of 4 Ontario workers choose not to be part of a union, the majority of workers actually risk losing their jobs when an union inflates the wage bubble.These negative impacts of wage bubble to the economy outweigh its benefits to a smaller portion of protected, unionized veteran workers.

While some economists dismiss the existence of “bubbles”, arguing that the market always trades at a “fair price”, this reason has little grounds in the labour market. Unions often succeed in negotiating above-equilibrium wages for their workers by leveraging its size or using pressure tactics such as general strike. This means that the wage level is artificially constructed and not a result of free-market.

If you are an optimistic thinker like me, then we may not always see firm failure to be the end of the world. Through creative destruction, productive companies could take over the idling resources and immediately put them into more efficient use. This speeds up the recovery process and increases economic output. But once again, union protection haunts again. Common in collective agreements are seniority clauses that protect veteran workers from layoffs or salary-decrease. This means that productive firms cannot upgrade their workforce as they wish when they have the opportunity to do so. Furthermore, with unions’ codified tasks and responsibilities at each position, companies face greater difficulties in expansion through merger and acquisition. Altogether, these restrictions effectively slow down the process of creative destruction and economic recovery.

The economic environment is changing. Union laws need to change, so do corporate laws.
As much as unions are to take blame for certain inefficiencies, the root of the issue remains with the management. Unions are the products of when push comes to shove. Unions are the absolute last resort for workers to protect themselves in terms of both health and wealth. The discrepancy of power between employers and workers allow room for abuse. To not address the issue of exploitative management is to be ignorant of an inherent misfortune of capitalism. Since it is the workers who ultimately have the choice to unionize, good firms will satisfy their employees in a manner that they wouldn’t need to unionize. Competitive firms rely on competitive strategies rather than lower wages; unions need to let loose of certain constraints on management so that the company can be competitive.

What the Ontario PCs have discussed is only the tip of the iceberg surrounding what I think is the most critical economic topic for the next 5-7 years. While unions have been an integral part of economic history, some unions are heading in a wrong direction. Often unions react abruptly to the global economic climate using their shear size and power, and in the process creating more harm than good.

The government has yet to react to this shift in dynamics. While the problem of “too-big-to-fail” is addressed to the banks, unions should be viewed through the same lens. In Canada, PSAC (172,000 members) has been active in its Third-Choice campaign against austerity measures. CUPE, Canada’s largest unions, has an astonishing 618,000 members. CAW and CEP, representing 200,000 and 315,000 workers respectively, are set to merge. Ontario teachers are set to strike this coming fall if a new deal is not reached with the provincial government. Under current labour law, unions of this size pose tremendous threat to the stability of our society, as they represent workers in every aspect of our lives.

Unfortunately the Ontario PC is taking the wrong approach to address this issue. All of the PCs’ proposed “paths”, with the exception of closed-tendering, actually have nothing to do with the economy when the matter deeply concerns our country’s cornerstone of democracy. When large unions take political stance on behalf of their members, who have no choice but to associate, they infringe on the individual liberty. The Ontario PC caucus needs not to hide behind with “economic prosperity” to abolish the Rand formula. All workers, regardless of union status, are entitled to a fair wage and an acceptable working environment; these should not be something a worker obtains through paying union dues.

Perhaps one way to restore equilibrium is to give people the choice. Rather eliminating unions, the government should work to ensure workers their right to unionize. A true and democratic representation will reveal poorly managed firms, make good unions even stronger, and weaken the corrupt organizations – all of which benefit our society.

In the years ahead as global economies face greater uncertainties, our society will become greater polarized. People will simply take a stance and place the blame on another group. Yet the fact of the matter is, we are all in this together.



MUNACA Strike - Halloween 2011

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Japanese Vs. North American Manufacturing: Management Matters


In the last decade, we saw the DotCom bubble burst and the US housing and financial market collapse, triggering lengthy recessions. Somewhere in-between the good times and the bad, North Americans realized they have to make certain changes in lifestyle; many turned away from the gas-guzzling cars and bought smaller cars, ones that are more reliable, better in quality, and more fuel-efficient. Some turned to the Japanese automakers.

When Toyota entered the North American market in 1984, they brought in more than just Japanese cars, machines, and robots; they also brought in a management system that eventually allowed the company to oust General Motors as world’s #1 automaker in 2008. There is no coincidence in that and Japanese firms’ strong emphasis on quality, detail, and teamwork, of which North American firms fare poorly.

I spent the last few weeks working as a blue collar operating machines on the assembly line of a Japanese-owned factory. Comparing my experiences here with that of working for a North American factory, I notice the subtleties in management practises that might have altered the fate of the companies. Below is an email from the general manager of one of the largest Canadian manufacturer based in Ontario. The letter is sent out to all supervisors-and-above employees to prepare for their Japanese clients’ visit.

AS part of long term planning and securing new business with high demand, but stable and loyal customers, every COMPANY X employee should raise their performance level in every category including 5S. On  June 21st we will have COMPANY J in our plant, and then on June 28th COMPANY K, one of the world leaders in transmission manufacturing and assembly,  from Japan, will stop by in their attempt to find machining source for different transmission components.

We want to present COMPANY X  in the best possible way.
To make it successful we must:
1.      Clean our work area and maintain it spotless.
2.      Fix as many leaks as possible.
3.      Stop leaving footprints everywhere
4.      Make sure that visual aids are available and kept in working order.
5.      Gauge tables must be very clean at any given time.
6.      Every part must be properly tagged and stored on proper location.
7.      Chip bins, outside/inside dunnage , should be placed in assigned areas.
8.      Tire marks, chips on the floor, oil and coolant in aisle way should be cleaned and areas maintain such
9.      Documentation should be up to date  i.e. operator instructions, ODS, gauge instructions, Process specifications etc.

Your cooperation is greatly appreciated.
Thanks
General Manager

From this email, notice the Japanese management’s attention on details. They are not concerned with a company’s quality reports, rather, they assess a company’s corporate practice through littlest things like footprints on the floor.


My experiences working for an Ontario-based Japanese-managed factory agree with the conditions described in the General Manager’s keynotes above. I could not find a single item misplaced at any given time in the work area. Everything at our workstations are properly labeled and organized that it seemed “cute” at first. When it comes to quality, Japanese manufacturers adopted a “just in time” system that allow management to trace every product manufactured to its maker, down to within half-hour of its production. The management study these records constantly to improve quality and efficiency through optimization calculus. Moreover, I was surprised by the level of automation at Japanese factories. They implemented sensors everywhere to eliminate human error. The company does not tolerate quality issues; if a part is accidentally scratched or dropped onto the floor, it is immediately scrapped. They follow the “5S” (sort, straighten, shine, systemize, sustain) methodology to heart. Because they are so attentive to details, Japanese firms achieve quality at every level of production.

Similar system is in place at the North American manufacturer I worked at, but it is never successfully enforced. We talked about quality, but never applied the principle to reality. Faulty parts are shipped anyways despite our knowledge of them. Had this happened in the Japanese factory, we would’ve held a plant-wide lecture on why quality matters. This is a matter of corporate principle. Over time, these organizational problems lead to catastrophic outcomes the way a butterfly creates a hurricane.

Lastly, we have to talk about corporate values. In the business world, corporate values and management abilities set competitive and noncompetitive manufacturers apart. The Japanese management found a way to indoctrinate its core values in each and every worker. When the Japanese top managers walk the floor and talk to assembly line workers, they ask not about technical questions, but how their family is, how their children are doing, whether they will are aware of the dates for the next company barbeque or golf tournament. The same is not true for North American manufacturer. Floor workers are often questioned on what they are doing. A colleague of my was fired on the spot when he failed to answer a technical question.

I know I’ve made the fallacy of sweeping generalization. But I do find merit in looking at the little things. Perhaps this is because this whole “Japanese-management” has gotten into me. I’ve yet to decide whether this is a good thing or not!



One of my work stations

Monday, July 9, 2012

An Economic Model of Leafs Hockey



The accomplishments of NHL General Manager is not easy to assess. Exactly how much of a team's success is owed to the General Manager and how much of it is just pure luck? That's the question we can answer with an economic model of hockey.

Take Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, and compare them with Boston Bruins, Anaheim Ducks, Detroit Red Wings, we have two models of how to win a Stanley Cup. The first group found success through years of "tanking" and accumulation of upper first round picks. The second group secured long-term success through trades and free-agent signing. Certainly the impact of the GM is different in the two groups!

No offense to Oilers GM Tembellini, but with three consecutive 1st overall picks (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov) it's kind of hard to screw up. Therefore, to model the assets of a hockey team, we need to separate a team's natural growth and induced growth in assets.

Since NHL is set up in a way that balances the powers of the teams through draft picks, we can assume a fair game. In other words, all teams will win equal number of Stanley Cups in the long run. What causes the short-term "fluctuation" is the works of the General Managers.

Some groundwork

There are four ways in which a team's assets can increase (or decrease):
1. Draft picks
2. Player development
3. Free-agent signing
4. Trades
(5. Cap space increase)

Even without any trades, a team will see its asset increase naturally; this is because each team is awarded with 7 draft picks each season. Draft picks are commodities that could be traded for other draft picks or players. Each draft pick has a specific value attached to it; the earlier the pick, the higher the probability of selecting an impact player. However, once a draft pick is used to select a player, the draft pick is no longer an asset of the team. Instead, the team gains an asset in a young player. The young player's value is subject to "Player Development".

For instance, Ottawa Senators was awarded the 1st overall pick in the 1993 NHL draft. With the 1st overall pick, the assets of Ottawa Senators increased significantly. But as soon as they selected Alex Daigle, Ottawa lost the value of the 1st overall pick. Instead, they gain a young player in Alex Daigle. And since Alex Daigle never lived up to the expectation of a 1st overall pick, Ottawa's assets decreased.

For the equalization process to work (that all teams are equally competitive in the long-run), we assume GMs have perfect knowledge of players. It is assumed that GMs always select the best player available with their draft picks. This allows us to use draft picks as a benchmark to evaluate a team's assets. The difference between the team's assets and the benchmark evaluates the performance of the GM.

This may sound confusing, but let's use my favourite team Toronto Maple Leafs as an example to clarify things.

When Brian Burke took over the Leafs in 2008, he inherited some assets in players (both in the NHL and AHL). Under natural growth, Leafs gains 4 x 7 = 28 draft picks, one pick in each round of selection from 2009 to 2012. Players, draft picks, and some cap space make up the Leafs' total assets.

In terms of draft picks, Leafs did not miss a single pick from the first three-rounds of selection from 2009 to 2012. This means that Leafs were able to at least grow at the natural rate of growth.

R. Player
1. Kadri
1. Biggs
1. Percy
1. Rielly
2. Blacker
2. Ross
2. Ryan
2. Finn
3. Devane
3. McKegg
3. Olden
3. Leivo
....

Since these assets are added for free and that we assumed the GM always draft the best player available with each pick, Burke cannot take credit for these additions. This is also the reason Tembellini cannot take credit for adding Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Yakupov.

Next, let's look at what Burke did with his roster players (stock capital). The list below includes all transactions Burke conducted since his take-over. Any change in asset value would be considered the work of the GM.



Traded away                                                  Received
1st (2010) Seguin
1st (2011) Biggs
1st (2011) Hamilton
1st (2011) Percy
2nd (2010) Knight
2nd (2009)
2nd (2011)
2nd (2009)
3rd (2011)
2nd (2010)
3rd (2012)
2nd (2010)
4th (2010)
2nd (2012)
4th (2012)
3rd (2010)
5th (2010)
3rd (2011)
6th (2010)
4th (2009)
6th (2010)
4th (2010)
7th (2010)
4th (2010)
7th (2011)
4th (2013)
7th (2012)
5th (2010)
Antropov (1st -1998)
5th (2010)
*Beauchmin
6th (2011)
Berry
6th (2011)
Blake
7th (2010)
Earl
7th (2011)
Giliati
7th (2012)
Hagman
Ashton (1st -2009)
Hayes
Colborne (1st -2008)
Kaberle
Deschamp(2nd -2008)
*Kubina
Franson
*Lebda
Gardiner (1st -2008)
*MacDonald
Kessel (1st -2006)
Mayers
Lashoff (1st -2005)
J. Mitchell
Liles 
D. Mitchell
Lombardi
*Moore
Lupul (1st -2002)
Petiot
Phaneuf (1st -2003)
Pogge
Steckel
Ponikarovsky
van Riemsdyk (1st -2007)
Schenn (1st -2008)
*MacArthur 
Slaney
*Komisarek (1st -2001)
Stajan
*McClement (2nd -2001)
Stalberg
*Connolly (1st -1999)
Stapleton
Stefanovich
Stralman
Tlusty (1st -2006)
Toskala
White

Bolded names are roster players
*Picked up through free agency


From the list of players Burke traded away, arguably only a handful are currently regular roster players, most of which are past their prime. In the list of players Leafs acquired, however, most of them are young players yet to reach their full potential. It's also worthwhile to note the players acquired were mostly former 1st or 2nd round picks. Clearly, Leafs assets increased quite significantly under Burke management.

Now, let's factor in "Player Development", which is a form of natural growth (or decline).

Projected Leafs Line-up:

Kessel - van Riemsdyk - Lupul
Kulemin - Grabovski - MacArthur
Frattin - Bozak - Kadri
Steckel - McClement - [Open]

Phaneuf - Liles
Gunnarson - Gardiner
Komisarek - Holzer

Reimer - Scrivens

Many of these roster players are already in the system before Burke arrived. Their values of increased over the years due to their development as hockey players. These values should be accredited to Ferguson and Fletcher.

For a more accurate evaluation of a team's assets, we need a mathematical model that assigns a numerical value to each player, also taking account of his age, potential, and development level. Fortunately, this has been done by EA Sports in the making of its NHL videogames.

Hopefully, now you have a new perspective of the Toronto Maple Leafs and GM Brian Burke.